Hey Guys,
I really got to fully appreciate how shitty it was driving tonight on my long way home. Thanks for coming out. Maybe it's a reflection on how little of a life I've had since I got hurt, or maybe it's because you guys are such a great bunch, but I'm getting so I look more and more forward to hanging with the Kucinich gang.
Beers and Hugs after we got clobbered tonight with just 1.3% in Iowa? Nope, nope. Beers and hugs just because, Iowa went fine.
When I got home and checked my email, and got to talking with Candice, my opposite number in Buffalo, we pieced together what went down tonight. We knew in advance that there was some kind of Kucinich/Edwards alliance happening. And I told you tonight that there were rumors that Dennis and Edwards had gotten to be friends out on the trail, hanging out together in the green room before debates and such.
We threw Iowa. Plain and simple. Wherever we had less than 15% in a precinct, we backed Edwards, and it cost Dean and Gephardt an arm and a leg each. Judging from the results, it worked. When you pick up tomorrow's paper, you'll see me quoted as saying "we conceded a pawn early in the chess match." The more I think about it, the more right it sounds.
The national campaign told us that this strategy 'goes beyond Iowa', but without specifics or details. So there's some guesswork coming. I could be wrong. But I don't think so. 'We' (Edwards/Kucinich) finished ahead of Dean by 14 points. We'll probably never know exactly how much of that margin was provided by Kucinich supporters, but we HAD to be more help to Edwards than Braun was to Dean. And Gephardt got shut out, failing to clear the 15% threshold.
The delegate scoreboard:
Kerry - 6 (still needs 2153 to win nomination)
Edwards - 3 (still needs 2156)
Dean - 2 (still needs 2157)
Gephardt, KUCINICH, Sharpton, Lieberman and Clark-nothing yet
Still up for election - 3509
"Super Delegates" still at large - 796
Next up is New Hampshire, a primary state, so Edwards won't have the opportunity to pay us back there, the delegates are voted on directly. BUT !!! on February 3rd, there are five primaries (only one of which -Arizona -we expect a good showing in) and two caucuses, North Dakota and New Mexico. BOTH of which we are strong in. And now, with Edwards owing us a favor (if he doesn't get to 15% himself), and his supporters joining ours as payback, we could win both outright. I think we are guaranteed 15% in both, at least. February 7th, are caucuses in Washington and Michigan, both EXTREMELY strong states for us. With a little help from our new best friend Sen. Edwards (again, IF he doesn't get to 15% himself), we could win both of THEM. Same with Maine on 2/8. Bottom line, we traded a pawn now (Iowa), for a realistic shot at five chess pieces later (caucus states as big or bigger than Iowa). The only way it backfires is if we gave Edwards such a boost in Iowa, he gets 15% in all or most of those five states himself, then the deal is off and we're on our own. The primary states are 'every man for himself' regardless.
Betting Dr. Howie is thinking about how much it sucks to be 'the only candidate who opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning', and how rough it is to be 'the only progressive candidate in the field', and how stinking rotten hose 'Washington Democrats' are. It's not just 'buckshot' the good Doctor is 'picking out of (his) rear' now. It's also Dennis foot. Dennis didn't get mad, he got even.
TRIVIA QUESTION: Although Gephardt has the endorsements of 21 unions, which two candidates actually have the BEST voting records in Congress on labor issues according to the AFL-CIO.
A. Dennis (98%) and Edwards (94%). Guess who is now best positioned to pick up those endorsements (and campaign contributions) if Gephardt crashes and burns now that his 'bet the farm on Iowa' strategy has backfired? Kerry won, but paid for it in money and resources he pulled into Iowa from other states at the last minute. Kerry, Dean and Gephardt each got rather muddy in the fracas. And now, here comes General Clark joining the circus in New Hampshire. I checked Edwards' website for his positions on the issues. Edwards is now proposing a Dennis-like plan for getting out of Iraq (NATO/UN troops in, we give up the war profiteering and the UN helps Iraq gain sovereignty; albeit with no timetable like Dennis), and is wanting his vote back on the Patriot Act (sorry Senator, too late). They are in lockstep on being anti-corporate influence, NAFTA sucks, Pentagon is a money pit, pro-labor, pro-choice, BIG on education, civil rights, and progressive tax laws. Edwards isn't as bold on healthcare. Dennis is going to have to help him out on the environment quite a bit. They fit together fairly nicely for the most part.
SO, it's a tag-team is what it is. I'm guessing this deal will hold all the way to the convention in July. If the combination of Kucinich/Edwards gets to 2159 delegates, there's your Democratic ticket. A Progressive from the rustbelt, and a relatively liberal Southerner, who learns fast, both running extremely positive, sunshiny campaigns. Whoever has the most delegates of the two is the next President of the United States. And makes Bush look like a chimp in the debates (imagine Dennis or Edwards - a trial lawyer by trade - debating Bush... nice isn't it?). The junior partner gets to embarrass Cheney in the VP debates (imagine either Edwards or Dennis debating Scrooge McDuck... nice isn't it?). Genius move by whoever thought it up, and I'm betting it was Dennis himself. That's why we love the man.
Brian [Kucinich supporter]
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